Towards an Integrated Network-based Approach to Modeling the Dynamics of Invasive Plant Pests

Globally, invasive alien species pose a growing threat to native ecosystems, health, food security and economic stability. The dynamics of biological invasions, particularly pests and pathogens associated with agricultural crops, are influenced not only by biological and climatic factors, but also human-centric activities such as trade, travel, supply chains, agricultural practices, etc. Modeling such a complex phenomenon requires integrating data, models and expertise from various disciplines. We survey the current modeling methods and identify their limitations, highlighting the computational and data challenges involved in modeling and simulating the spread of invasive species. We then envision a network-based modeling paradigm for building realistic models which represent and integrate various ecological and human-mediated pathways responsible for the rapid spread of pests. The framework will be presented in the context of a representative pest, the South American tomato leafminer which has been ravaging tomato crops across the globe. We believe that the methodology is generic enough to be easily adapted for other invasive alien species.